Thursday 17 May 2012

I doubt UPDF captured Maj Gen Ceasar Acellam

LRA: Insurgency in Northern Uganda

A statement associated with the Whitehouse that was reported in the Ugandan tabloid - The Redpepper, and published on May 17, 2012 edition indicate that President Barack Obama has recognized the highly hyped capture of Major General Ceasar Acellam as an achievement for the UPDF and their US military allies. Indeed, if it is true that this LRA third in command was actually captured by UPDF, then the Ugandan Army deserves all the big-ups.
However, the circumstances surrounding the so-called capture of Maj General Acellam are very suspicious because of the many facts that have emerged so far. I doubt whether UPDF really captured Maj General Acellam. Apparently, it is easily sustainable to argue that Acellam simply negotiated his way out of LRA to freedom, contrary to the bluffs and media bleeps that UPDF is perpetuating about an ambushed capture and so forth.
Examining the scenes of capture, one does not need a forensic scientist or special investigator to conclude that Ceasar Acellam was a man on his way to surrender. First, he was holed up with his family, a 21 years old wife, a child and housekeeper (I wonder where their house was). Secondly, a full Maj. General had no escorts and was armed with AK 47 containing few rounds of ammunition as if going for a hunting expedition. Given the fact that the Acellam is clearly inefficient in gait mobility due to the gunshot on his left leg, he was clearly limping with the help of a stick and could not outmaneuver UPDF ambush all by himself. The confidence and utterances by the “captive” during press conference illustrated clearly that the “capture” was pre-planned and conscientiously executed.
The UPDF spokesperson claimed that there were few fire exchanges, who shot at who, for what reasons? There is no way that a person with a properly constituted mind can believe that UPDF made any efforts to capture, other than receiving the Major General. Period!
Nonetheless, it is proper to give credit where it is due. I could agree that the pressure mounted on the LRA by a combined UPDF and US Marines’ special units could have yielded an opportunity for Acellam.  Further, as strategist, using a language of “capture” by UPDF protects and encourages the other commanders/fighters to consider jumping ship.
We know that since the killing of Otti by Kony, the relationship between Joseph Kony and Ceasar Acellam has not been the same. Acellam was confidante of Ottii and vice versa, but Acellam was also less brutal in the frontlines as depicted in various narratives and confessions from former LRA fighters and captives. These traits endeared Acellam to various political kingpins and it is the reason he is associated with liaising between LRA and Khartoum (intelligent coordinator) and his name does not appear among the top LRA commanders indicted by ICC.
It is imperative to understand that how the government handles Maj General Ceasar Acellam will set pace for other LRA remnants to surrender or not. For many years, UPDF has had the least interest in dismantling LRA. Any efforts shown towards rescuing the captives and reducing the field strength of LRA, including capturing its leadership should be highly regarded. 
Fortunately, the Acholi community would wish to forgive Acellam, and government of Uganda should heed to this inner plea by availing him Amnesty privileges. This will encourage othe LRA fighters to exploit the existing opportunities and to quit jungle life. The message is that they (LRA) should embrace peace and reclaim their life when this opportunity still exists.
In conclusion, it is very improbable that UPDF way laid and captured Maj General Ceasar Acellam. I strongly believe that UPDF negotiated with the Acellam for easy route out.  It is also apparent that Acellam’s capture is being used as news fodder to illustrate that UPDF and US Marines are delivering on their missions. This kind of media neediness may mislead the public but most fundamental is that the chief architect of LRA – Joseph Kony is still at large. The real test of potency of this mission will emerge when Joseph Kony and his other rag tag fighters are captured and brought to justice.

Friday 4 May 2012

Uganda as a State is an illusion right now!

The geopolitical dynamics in Eastern African is one that must be of interest to the members of the civil society. The many violent conflicts in the region have changed the political fortunes of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni by giving him a huge advantage over his competitors. The wars in Somalia and Sudan have given Museveni unprecedented relevance in the region at the time when Ugandans are fed up with him. Both the African Union and the United Nations will agree that Museveni has become very resourceful and useful person in their efforts to pacify Somalia and Sudan.
It is important to understand that President Museveni’s many years in power have come at a very high human cost. The sum total of all the lives lost in Luwero, Northern Uganda, Teso, Karamoja, Congo, Rwanda, Sudan in the last 26 years, and now in Somalia, all speaks to the success of a man that has been fueled by blood and iron. Museveni comes across as a great emperor of his time, but in essence, he is an imperial agent.
Museveni has benefitted militarily from his active participation in proxy wars in the region. He has been able to build one of the most proficient armies in the region and at high cost, he has equipped them well. The Uganda Peoples’ Defence Force is one of the most sophisticated armies according to international military intelligence. Its partisan leadership ensures loyalty to the person of the President. The majority of officers in that army are from the ethnic group of the President and that makes it easy for his control.
The other significance of the persisting violence is the political fortune that Museveni enjoys over his opponents. The very same UPDF and its affiliates in the Police have become brutal instruments of political repression at home. Because of the regional juxtaposition, Museveni finds himself in no position to empathize with the opposition. After all, it is clear that his UN, AU, US, EU colleagues for whom he has served relentlessly, cannot question his human rights credentials as yet.
Recently, a member of the British Parliament was quoted to have insinuated that the British embassy in Uganda is too afraid to point out the precarious conditions of the opposition to Museveni.  Museveni, with his pomp, has not been shy to intimidate and threaten these foreign dignitaries and the so-called donor community into subservience. The ill treatment, rampant arrests and outlawing of political groups in Uganda signifies the dearth of political freedom. Ugandans once again have found themselves under the claws of a vicious tyrant and warmonger. The dictates are that we have to invest in removing oppression imposed by a state over the people and not the social conditions that thwart human progress.
We must understand that wars in this neo-liberal era have become a commodity in the free market. Armies and leaders like Museveni become mercenaries and merchants in these wars. The dividends accruing from such a war translate into repression on the common man. The profits from such wars furnish luxurious lifestyles for the warmongers. The rest gets reinvested into the war. The ordinary person is staked and suppressed so that their taxes are expropriated violently.
The over reliance on war for political survival can inspire an additional explanation for the rampant corruption and decline in quality of human resources. The government has significantly reduced its spending on education but has quadrupled its expenditures on the Defence. The defence budget is not to protect the territorial integrity of Uganda, but the political interest therein.
Regional peace is an inevitable utopia; to attain it at the expense of social services for our citizens is as treacherous. A vibrant Eastern Africa economy without competitively skilled manpower only furthers the disempowerment of the people and speeds the process of neo-colonialism. In the liberal markets, Ugandans supply Agricultural products like tomatoes and okra in unprocessed forms. Foreign agents like MacDonald and Nandos will supply fried chicken with ketchup and mayonnaise at high value.
Without properly funded education sector we are doomed. At the moment, the essence of the State is obscure and the apathy accruing towards the State makes the charges of terrorism even for a journalist holding a pen, inevitable. Uganda as a State is an illusion to many of us!!
END


Peasantry politics and the crisis of allegiance

PEASANTRY POLITICS Recently Hon. Ojara Martin Mapenduzi dominated the national news headlines over his decision to cooperate with the Nation...