Saturday 22 November 2014

Amuru By-Election was a referendum: Implications for the Opposition towards 2016

AMURU REFERENDUM

Amuru has just concluded electing a replacement to Hon. Betty Oyella Bigombe who was seconded to World Bank as Senior Director for Fragility, Conflicts and Violence. Whatever that position entails, Hon. Bigombe secured a respectful position than her pitiful position as Minister of State for Water, considering her seniority in NRMO.

This time, Amuru people switched their position from NRM to Opposition FDC, which could also mean that the 2011 vote was for Ms Bigombe, rather than NRMO’s.

The outcome of the by-elections should not be taken lightly going to 2016. 

Amuru is one of the areas in Acholi that got battered terribly by the two decades of insurgency. Our memories are still fresh with the Atiak Massacre of April 20th, 1995 in which over 300 lives. Later, the then Vice President Specioza Kazibwe, while visiting the scenes of the massacre, was quoted in the media to have said that the people of Atiak were killed to make manure. With such a dark spot in its history, it was surprising that the NRM candidate, Ms Akilli Amongi could even win at Atiak!

Atiak is relatively an urbanized centre, itself having been a home to one of the largest internment camps where life conditions were described as squalid and unbearable. The hopelessness and powerlessness that shaped the perceptions of the people there could have endeared them to the ruling Party for material gains. Further, it appears that most of the voters in Atiak are alienated from the harshness of rural life characterized by land grabs by soldiers, family conflicts, and forceful eviction for Madhvani plantations.

The other implication is that, the anticipated fortune of the NRM in this region is imaginary. There has been this false perception that NRM has made inroads in Northern Uganda. It appears that these areas tend to vote for individual quality rather than the Party. The regime minders front the various post conflict reconstruction programs such as PRDP, NUSAF, restocking, etc, as a reward or a favor, rather than a right, for the neglected region. 

For the locals on the ground, these programs have translated into fringe benefits for them. The proceeds from these services are evidently benefiting few regime cronies. Take for instance, the unequal distribution of war compensations, including selective cattle restocking, moreover with malnourished breed of animals. These services have compounded the misery of the people and driven them into ambiguity about post conflict development.  Given the fusion of the State with the incumbent political party, people are having difficulties discerning government programs from NRMO’s, and are apathetic to them altogether.

Amuru has been on the political spotlight over a long period of time. From the days of Divinity Union in the 90s to the recent open discovery of potent oil wells, the regime and its elements had eyed Amuru for grabs and they are still fixated on that trophy. Amuru has rich, fertile land, endowed with vast minerals and large rural population. 

The land is what beholds the populace. It is these attributes that the regime so wishes to usurp from the people, to dole out to sham investors whose agenda is to enslave the people of Amuru on their own lands. This by-election therefore was sort of a referendum, to tell Mr. Museveni that the people of Amuru meant business, and that, they value their land above all pettiness of politics.

One of the biggest implications of this by-election is the way it united the Opposition. Ugandans love to see UPC, DP, FDC, etc, working together as they did in Amuru and Luwero. When united, they can deter NRM from blatantly stuffing ballots and multiple voting by aliens to rig elections. Many commentators praised that harmony of interparty coalition in Amuru, claiming that it illustrated a degree of maturity which Ugandans expect, to be able to trust the Opposition with power. While the NRM leaks its wounds, the big questions going forward is; what political fortune awaits a divided opposition in 2016?


END

No comments:

Post a Comment

Peasantry politics and the crisis of allegiance

PEASANTRY POLITICS Recently Hon. Ojara Martin Mapenduzi dominated the national news headlines over his decision to cooperate with the Nation...