CHALLENGING A TYRANT
The
headline section in every Daily in Uganda today is dedicated to the ongoing
contest between President Museveni and his long-time confidant, and former
Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi (JPAM). The declaration of JPAM since Monday June
15th, via YouTube video should be seen in a positive light
since it exposes the undemocratic values that anti-NRMO campaigners previously
identified.
JPAM's candidacy has injected shock
waves through the core of the establishment since President Museveni is yet to
face a challenge by his very closest insider. After this contest, NRM will not
be the same. For now, it is like a pancake being ripped through by its bakers.
If President Museveni was the face of the NRMO, JPAM was its very manifestation
– the active ingredient that that people felt about NRMO. JPAM's candidacy
therefore, is something personal to many in the establishment who now realizes
that their guaranteed privileges and power are genuinely threatened.
In the coming days, few stern
actions will salvage the integrity of the NRMO; one of it is to expel JPAM and
his entire "clique" out of the NRMO. By so doing, President Museveni
will strive to isolate JPAM and amputate his tentacles within the NRMO enclave to
consolidate his sole command within Party ranks. Naturally, with the trying
moments, “Peters” will deny JPAM more than thrice in the coming months; some
will be acting with an absolute obscurantism to secure their places on the high
table and in the yellow bus.
The second and most strenuous will
be for the establishment to clamp down on the sources of income that is fueling
JPAM. Never in the history of Uganda has any Presidential candidate hired 500
lawyers. Lawyers don not come cheap, even if they were on a retainer basis.
JPAM's money will be a subject of scrutiny since the NRM Youth Chairperson,
Namara has already hinted on it.
The third stage of the JPAM
onslaught will be to try to identify and isolate JPAM from external influences.
It is guaranteed that money will be spent in London, Washington DC, and The
Hague, or even Beijing, to try to stave off a potential policy shift or empathy
in favour of JPAM. Lobbyists at these foreign capitals don’t come cheap either.
Sadly, the cost of a JPAM candidacy will have to be loaded on the taxpayers.
The fourth stage, or an anticlimax
will be a propaganda onslaught on JPAM at home. Here, the NRMO publicists will
try to embark on portraying JPAM variedly as a dangerously ungrateful person
who is monstrous and disruptive; power hungry etc. We already saw these
strategies employed on Col Kiiza Besigye in 2001.
However, the anti-JPAM will find it
onerous to develop an effective propaganda that does not drag their President
into the same greasy sink. After 40 years of symbiotic relationship, it is hard
to distinguish between Museveni and JPAM. As such, it will be tremendously hard
to pin JPAM on the cross of political impurities without nailing Mr. Museveni
along.
In fact,
with a good PR strategy, Team JPAM could ride off unscathed from a media
onslaught. In fact they could benefit even more from an offensive. Recall that
while JPAM was actively serving the interests of his master, JPAM’s image was cultivated as "Mr.
Clean", "Not a businessman" etc. When the public cried foul of
the highly corrupted tendencies that followed JPAM everywhere he was posted,
the President gave him a clean bill and promotions.
The downside of this political
storm is that the Opposition has been sidelined and denied media attention.
They will have to wait for a little longer for the storm to settle. But even
then, there is an urgency for the Democratic Alliance to galvanize the spaces
that is being created by the rift in the NRM. They have the opportunity to
demonstrate and reiterate that indeed, change away from JPAM or Museveni is now
inevitable.
END
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