Friday 2 January 2015

After Neutralizing Mbabazi, removal of Art 102(b) is next on Mr. Museveni's agenda

CONSTITUTIONAL AMMENDMENT

The year 2014 ended dramatically and with political ruckus in NRMO Party. Three characters dominated news in the last months of the 2014; President Museveni, Amama Mbabazi and the Four Stars General, David Sejusa aka Tinyefuza.

The year 2014 also got Mr. Museveni to demonstrate his characteristic trait of revolutionary patience especially with internal dissent, but responded with a reciprocated show of the mastery of Uganda’s political arena. The way President Museveni has played his cards in the face of his adversaries reaffirmed that none of his contemporaries actually know the President or understand fully how he conceptualizes society. He also demonstrated that his politics is about self preservation and longevity, after-all, success of a politician is measured his inherent ability to dominate others in contested social, physical and political spaces.

We learnt quickly that the President understands political economy differently – the man has idealized the use of resources to dismantle his opponents decisively. But in his end of year maneuvers, the President also demonstrated that no one person in his Party or in Uganda can challenge him as an individual, more-so, with weak financial muscles. His, is the art of meticulous organizing, duplicity, resource mobilization, isolating his adversaries, and subsequently devouring the opponents naturally.

Mr. Amama Mbabazi became an exemplar, albeit an expensive one who cost the Party and the Nation, a whooping 76 billion shillings, going by The Observer’s estimates (refer to: The cost of neutralizing Mbabazi, Dec 28, 2014). Here, we learnt something  spectacular– that  if you want to extract money from President Museveni, even for repairing potholes, fixing bridges or  a broken sewer system, just threaten his stronghold on power and he will break the bank to neutralize you!
The second and most unusual patience was extended to the innately impulsive renegade Gen. David Sejusa. Many commentators have called on the regime to discipline this man who has broken all laws but is still at large, making partisan political statements in the media – a wrong platform for serving Officers, we were told. The army has tried to tell us that they have no ground for arresting the General. This failure or rather lackadaisical response also shows the double standard of application of military code of conduct and the limit of much coveted professionalism of this UPDF.

We recall that in 2005 Brigadier Tumukunde was charged for making public statement contrary to military code of conduct. Prior to that, the now retired Colonel Dr Kiiza Besigye in 2000/2001 suffered hell on earth for speaking straight to the powers. Given the two examples, we can say that Gen. Sejusa has received differential treatment as if he serves in a different army than the UPDF.
One question that lingers in our minds is why has the army and their Commander-in-Chief tip-toed around Gen. Sejusa? 

There could be only few plausible explanations; one is to make the General’s purported political clout to get deflated so he can fizzle out quickly to oblivion. This option though is politically astute, also sets bad precedence for the army and challenges the very notion of its professionalism and non-partisan image that the Army Spokespersons always parrot about.  Another possible explanation is that President Museveni is playing tribal cards where he is too afraid to touch Sejusa else he irritates the Bahiima and his Tutsi bases in the army, security and western Uganda. Lastly, the President desperately would like to use Sejusa to occupy and galvanize productive spaces that the Opposition should be filling heading towards the treacherous 2016.

Any political analyst would predict that Uganda will pay dearly for these random acts of benevolence that the President is demonstrating. After nominating Mbabazi to the CEC, I predict that the President’s next major political move is to amend the 1995 Constitution to remove the Presidential age limit Art.102(b) to allow his life Presidency project to sail through.


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